We’ve all been reading AI-will-take-your-job headlines for two years now. So when Anthropic dropped a new labor market report this week, I expected more of the same doom.

Instead, they found nothing.

They built a new metric called "observed exposure" that combines what AI can theoretically do with what people are actually using Claude for in professional settings.

Then they matched it against US employment data going back to 2016, comparing unemployment rates between the most AI-exposed workers and the least exposed.

Since ChatGPT launched, there's been zero detectable increase in unemployment for AI-exposed workers.

Statistically zero. Three years in, and the scariest technology of our generation hasn't put a dent in the employment numbers.

I nearly stopped reading there, but glad I didn't.

But first, let's catch up on AI this week:

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Workers aged 22 to 25 saw a 14% drop in job-finding rates in AI-exposed occupations starting in 2024. A separate study from Brynjolfsson et al. found a 6-16% employment drop for the same age group independently.

Meanwhile workers over 25 showed no equivalent change.

In practice:

A mid-career financial analyst or customer service manager keeps their job, their workload gets lighter because Claude handles chunks of it through the API and the company saves money.

But when someone on the team leaves, that role doesn't get backfilled. When the team was supposed to hire two juniors this quarter, they hire one. Or none.

Nobody gets fired, and the layoff numbers stay flat but the entry point into that career quietly shrinks.

This tracks with everything we've been covering. In January, we wrote about how AI is deskilling work, taking the hardest tasks first, not the easiest.

The demographics in this new report confirm it again.

Workers in the top quartile of AI exposure earn 47% more than unexposed workers, are nearly four times more likely to hold a graduate degree, and are 16 percentage points more likely to be female.

The most exposed occupations are computer programmers (75% of their tasks now covered by AI usage), customer service reps, and data entry keyers (67%).

The least exposed are cooks, bartenders, mechanics, and lifeguards, all at zero coverage. If your work requires a physical body in a specific place, AI hasn't touched it.

So the profile of the person most at risk from AI isn't the factory worker everyone pictures.

It's a 23-year-old with a master's degree applying for an analyst role at a company that just figured out Claude can do 60% of that job through their API.

This is also different from a normal recession or hiring freeze in the sense that the gap between what AI can do and what it's currently doing is still enormous.

Computer & Math jobs are 94% theoretically exposed but only 33% covered by actual usage today. That remaining 61% is coming.

Every capability upgrade, new integration, and company that figures out API automation closes that gap a little more.

The BLS already projects 0.6 percentage points less job growth for every 10 percentage points of AI exposure, through 2034.

These jobs are disappearing at the point of entry, one unfilled position at a time, in exactly the fields where young professionals have been told to build their careers.

If you're already working in an AI-exposed field, your immediate risk is low.

But your career trajectory runs through roles that might not exist by the time you're ready for them.

What I'd actually do:

Go to your company's job board right now and look at what entry-level roles they've posted in the last 6 months vs. the 6 months before that.

If the junior roles in your department are thinning out, that tells you something about how leadership views AI's role on the team.

It also tells you the ladder you're expecting to climb might be losing rungs at the bottom.

If you're early-career or about to switch fields, look at where the gap between theoretical AI capability and actual adoption is still wide.

That's where hiring still makes sense to companies because AI hasn't gotten good enough yet.

But also understand that gap is closing, so you're picking a window, not a permanent safe zone.

The headline from this report is reassuring: AI hasn't caused unemployment.

Your current job is probably safe but your next career move is a different question.

Until next time,
Vaibhav 🤝

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