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If AI disappeared tomorrow, could you still do your job at your current level?

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In September, we wrote about people becoming too dependent on AI. That pattern has shifted.

Anthropic just released their January Economic Index, for which they tracked over 1 million conversations to understand how people are using Claude.

One key insight: AI is systematically taking your highest-skill work and leaving you with the grunt work.

Travel agents lose itinerary planning (high skill), keep payment processing (grunt work). Teachers lose grading and research (high skill), keep attendance (grunt work).

You get the idea.

Here are my 3 takeaways from the report. But before that, here’s what happening in AI this week.

News News News:

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1. AI takes your best work first.

Anuj is a technical writer.

Six months ago, his workday looked like this:

  • Mornings: Analyze industry developments, recommend documentation updates

  • Afternoons: Review technical materials, suggest strategic changes

  • Last hour: Sketch diagrams, observe product demos

But if you observe, his job is now 100% the least-skilled parts of what he used to do.

This “downskilling” pattern repeats across professions.

Teachers are using AI for the high-expertise work like grading, research, and grant writing. And they’re left with classroom management and attendance.

Travel agents now use or are replaced by AI to build complex itineraries. What’s left for them to do now is just admin work like printing tickets and processing payments.

One exception: property managers.

AI handles their bookkeeping and routine admin, while they focus on contract negotiations and stakeholder management, which is key part of their job. So in this case, they are being upskilled, not deskilled.

The difference comes down to which tasks AI removes.

Most people are becoming Anuj. They don't realize it yet because the 10x speed increase feels like winning.

2. Your prompts are your ceiling.

The report shows a near-perfect correlation between prompt sophistication and output quality.

AI can only generate outputs as sophisticated as your ability to specify requirements and evaluate results.

For example:

Basic prompt: "Help me plan a trip to France"

Gets you: Generic tourist recommendations, standard itinerary Speedup: 9x faster than planning yourself

Expert prompt: "Compare Lyon vs. Loire Valley for a 5-day culinary itinerary, optimizing for château access with a €2000 budget and boutique accommodations. Factor in travel time between regions and recommend 2-3 restaurants per day that showcase regional specialties."

Gets you: Sophisticated comparative analysis with specific recommendations, cost breakdowns, and insider tips Speedup: 12x faster than planning yourself

Your skill ceiling = AI's output ceiling.

Remember Developer A and Developer B from our last edition?

When AI takes your highest-skill work and you stop practicing it, your expertise atrophies. You become Anuj: 10x faster at junior-level work, unemployable for senior roles.

3. Too dependent yet?

Most people think they're getting smarter with AI. But the data shows 45% are building dependencies instead of expertise.

Five tests to know which category you're in:

  1. Are your AI prompts getting more sophisticated over time?
    Go back and look at prompts you wrote 3 months ago versus today. Are you asking more nuanced questions, providing better context, or requesting more specific outputs?

  2. Can you identify when AI is wrong?
    The new data reveals complex tasks have a 39% failure rate. If you can't spot when AI makes errors, you're shipping wrong work at 10x speed.

  3. Could you still do the task if AI went down for a week?
    Be honest. If AI disappeared tomorrow, could you do your job at the level your employer expects?

  4. Is AI handling your highest-skill or lowest-skill work?
    If AI is doing the expert-level work that used to define your value (like Anuj’s analysis), you're being deskilled.

  5. When AI completes a task, do you understand how it got there?
    Pure automation means you never see the process, never understand the reasoning, never learn the approach. You can't improve something you don't understand.

My take: a 5-year split

In five years, there will be two types of professionals:

Type A: Prompts at expert level, iterates toward solutions they couldn't reach alone, constantly improves their ability to use AI for harder problems

Type B: Delegates everything, never learns, gets incrementally better at shipping volume but not at generating quality

Type A will be 10x more valuable than Type B.

Most people think they're Type A. The data shows 45% are Type B.

It was 47% three months ago. So people are waking up, just not fast enough.

As a type B you're shipping more, getting faster, checking boxes. Hence it feels more efficient.

But you're getting faster at work you won't be doing in five years.

Until next time,
Vaibhav 🤝

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